Ten years on from Melbourne’s thunderstorm asthma disaster, this season could be a bad one
A warm, wet winter means more grass pollen. People from Sri Lankan and South Asian backgrounds were hit hard in 2016. Here’s how to stay safe.
Victoria’s thunderstorm asthma forecasting season runs from 1 October to 31 December, and health authorities are warning this one could be busy. Victoria had its wettest winter since 2016 and its warmest on record, which means strong grass growth and more pollen when it flowers.
That matters because of thunderstorm asthma. When a storm hits on a high-pollen day, gusty winds can break pollen into tiny pieces that reach deep into the lungs. It can bring on sudden, severe asthma, even in people who have never had it.
On 21 November 2016, Melbourne had the world’s worst recorded thunderstorm asthma event. Ten people died, and more than 3,300 extra people turned up at emergency departments within 30 hours, according to Asthma Australia. Six of the ten who died were from Indian, Sri Lankan and South-East Asian backgrounds, the organisation said.
Research since then, summarised by University of Melbourne researchers, found people of Asian or Indian ancestry have a much higher risk of severe pollen-triggered asthma. Nearly two-thirds of people caught up in these events did not know they had asthma.
“Thunderstorm asthma can be life-threatening,” Victoria’s Chief Health Officer, Dr Caroline McElnay, said.
Why it matters to you
- Hay fever counts. People with spring hay fever are at higher risk. If you sneeze every spring, see your GP before November.
- Check the forecast. The VicEmergency app shows a three-day thunderstorm asthma risk (low, moderate or high) for each district. Set a watch zone for your area.
- On high-risk days, get inside before the storm. The strong gusts before a storm are the danger. Close windows and doors, and turn off air conditioners that pull in outside air.
- Keep your reliever handy and follow your asthma action plan. If you rely only on a reliever, ask your GP about a preventer.
- Call 000 if someone is struggling to breathe or speak, is drowsy, or has blue lips.
Please share this with older relatives and anyone new to Melbourne. Many people who arrive from Sri Lanka have never experienced a Melbourne spring.
Sources: Victorian Department of Health, Epidemic thunderstorm asthma risk forecast; Victorian Government warning, as reported by Star Mail, 8 October 2026; Asthma Australia; University of Melbourne, Pursuit. General information, not medical advice.